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- <text id=89TT0963>
- <link 93TO0069>
- <link 91TT2015>
- <link 90TT0658>
- <title>
- Apr. 10, 1989: A Long, Mighty Struggle
- </title>
- <history>
- TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1989
- Apr. 10, 1989 The New USSR
- </history>
- <article>
- <source>Time Magazine</source>
- <hdr>
- THE UNION, Page 48
- A LONG, MIGHTY STRUGGLE
- </hdr>
- <body>
- <p>A historic--and surprising--election is the latest
- indication that, for all his troubles, Gorbachev's revolution is
- transforming his nation
- </p>
- <p>By Walter Isaacson
- </p>
- <p> Upon returning to Moscow in 1944 after a seven-year
- absence, the American diplomat George Kennan was struck by the
- enigma of an empire both yearning for its rightful place in the
- modern world and clinging to the enfeebling insularity of its
- past. "The Anglo-Saxon instinct is to attempt to smooth away
- contradictions," he wrote. "The Russian tends to deal only in
- extremes, and he is not particularly concerned to reconcile
- them. To him, contradiction is a familiar thing. It is the
- essence of Russia."
- </p>
- <p> Contradiction has also become the essence of its second
- revolution, the radical crusade by Mikhail Gorbachev to create
- nothing less than a new Soviet Union. In fits and starts, using
- such hybrids as socialist markets and one-party pluralism, he
- has directed one of the most transfixing spectacles of modern
- times: an encrusted political and economic system being brought,
- stumbling and blinking in amazement, into the light of a new
- era. In the tradition of Peter the Great, who opened up Russia
- to the West almost 300 years ago to rescue it from backwardness,
- Gorbachev is trying to transform, neither slowly nor surely,
- every aspect of his nation's political, economic and
- psychological life.
- </p>
- <p> Gorbachev has been in power for four years. In some ways,
- he was running for a second term in last Sunday's election of
- a new Congress of People's Deputies, seeking a mandate for his
- three-pronged pitchfork of perestroika (economic
- restructuring), glasnost (openness) and demokratizatsiya
- (democratization). Not since the Bolsheviks were trounced in the
- Constituent Assembly races of November 1917 had citizens of the
- Soviet Union been given the chance to vote in a real national
- election. This time some highly visible keepers of the Bolshevik
- faith fared poorly. But for Gorbachev the results could be, if
- he uses them adroitly, the mandate he sought to move to the next
- stages of reform.
- </p>
- <p> In a land hardly famous for political comebacks, Boris
- Yeltsin, the brash populist who a year ago was ousted as Moscow
- Communist Party boss and candidate member of the Politburo, has
- become a symbol of the opportunities and obstacles that
- Gorbachev now faces. Yeltsin's triumph, along with the defeat
- of party hacks from Siberia to Lithuania, represented a rousing
- endorsement of Gorbachev's vision of perestroika. But it also
- represented a feisty revolt against the failure of his reforms
- to improve the harsh realities of Soviet life.
- </p>
- <p> Gorbachev had already secured one of the seats in the new
- legislature reserved for top party officials. Thus he did not
- have to confront personally the deflating question that dogs
- American candidates: Are you better off now than you were four
- years ago?
- </p>
- <p> The answer again involves contradictions. Life is clearly
- far better these days: the fear that was the most oppressive
- aspect of daily existence has been replaced by a torrent of free
- expression, while experiments with market principles show faint
- signs of sparking economic success. Life is just as clearly no
- better at all: the shelves in the shops are more barren than
- when Gorbachev took office, the limited economic reforms serve
- mainly to reveal how hopelessly ossified the economy is, and the
- flirtation with freedom has frayed the seams binding the
- empire's diverse nationalities.
- </p>
- <p> In fact, to pronounce perestroika either a success or a
- failure at this stage is to misperceive its nature. At best, it
- is the beginning of a protracted and massive undertaking that
- could take a generation or more. "During the past 70 years, a
- new man has been created who is obedient and easily frightened,"
- says the poet Bulat Okudzhava, a veteran Soviet-reform advocate.
- "What has been created over decades cannot be undone in a day."
- Energizing an empire of 285 million people and turning it into
- a modern economy ranks among the most daunting tasks of modern
- times, as audacious as Deng Xiaoping's Four Modernizations or
- Franklin Roosevelt's creation of a new social welfare state.
- </p>
- <p> Like Dr. Johnson's remark about dogs who walk upright and
- women who preach, the amazing thing about perestroika is not
- that the Soviets are doing it well but that they are doing it
- at all. "We so quickly and lightly overlook the remarkable
- existence of perestroika and focus on the obstacles," says
- Robert Legvold, director of Columbia University's Averell
- Harriman Institute, "that we underestimate the significance of
- the fact that it has begun at all." Whatever happens, and
- whatever course it finally takes, the Gorbachev revolution has
- already become one of the greatest dramas and most momentous
- events of the second half of the 20th century.
- </p>
- <p> Five of the six men who have led the Soviet Union have
- clung to power until their deaths. But the one exception--Nikita
- Khrushchev, the earthy reformer of a generation ago--stands as a
- cautionary reminder of the perils of perestroika.
- The combination of glasnost and demokratizatsiya runs the risk
- of giving conservatives the chance to point to a breakdown in
- social order. This is a major consideration in one of the most
- order-obsessed regimes on earth. Gorbachev's situation, like the
- fate of his reforms, will thus remain precarious.
- </p>
- <p> Gorbachev has been able to demote but not purge from the
- Communist Party's ruling Politburo Yegor Ligachev, his
- conservative thorn. Ligachev and his allies, who include former
- KGB chief Victor Chebrikov, could become even more antagonistic
- out of dismay at the fate of fellow party traditionalists in the
- election. None is likely to try to pull off a coup, but it is
- possible that they could force Gorbachev to water down the
- reforms.
- </p>
- <p> Even if Gorbachev is reined in, or toppled, the seeds he
- has sown in the Soviet mind and the changes he has already
- wrought will leave an indelible mark. The reforms of Khrushchev
- and Kosygin were squelched, but the ideas they planted blossomed
- a quarter-century later in a new generation of leadership. As
- Gorbachev told Henry Kissinger when he visited Moscow earlier
- this year, "At any rate, things will never be the same again in
- the Soviet Union." Notes Kissinger: "This would be a modest
- result for so Herculean a task." Yes, but once again the
- contradiction is also true: the fact that the Soviet Union has
- been so deeply altered that it will never again be exactly the
- same is of monumental historic significance.
- </p>
- <p> The Soviet people now know what it is like not to fear.
- They have learned the joys (and, yes, the frustrations) of a
- feisty press. They have had Pasternak returned to them and have
- openly called for the publication of Solzhenitsyn. They have
- tasted the fruits of private marketplaces and cooperative cafes,
- discovered the potential (and, yes, the frustrations) of
- private entrepreneurship; they have watched candidates debate
- on television and be asked whether they believe in God. And they
- have read articles brushing the dust off Trotsky, probing the
- demonic mind of Stalin and introducing them to the ideas of Lech
- Walesa.
- </p>
- <p> Most significant, perhaps, is the forthright admission by
- the Soviets that they are trying to shed the burden of a
- rigidly centralized economy based on Leninist-Stalinist
- principles. The eulogies on the death of Communism may be
- premature, but there are signs that a verdict is being reached
- in the long twilight struggle between this century's two
- dominant ideologies. While scrambling to find euphemisms for
- such apostate phrases as "private property," the Soviets are
- jettisoning many of their Communist tenets in favor of some that
- are at the heart of democratic capitalism: contested elections,
- pluralism, codified individual rights, market incentives and the
- reward of private enterprise.
- </p>
- <p> The one thing that can be said with certainty about
- perestroika is that it has exposed how difficult rebuilding the
- Soviet economy will be. The obstacles are greater, the situation
- more dire and the fixes more fundamental than even Gorbachev
- suspected four years ago. "Frankly speaking, comrades, we have
- underestimated the extent and gravity of the deformations," he
- told a Party Conference last year. Nikolai Shmelev, one of the
- country's radical economic gadflies, has put it more vividly:
- "We are now like a seriously ill man who, after a long time in
- bed, takes his first step with the greatest degree of difficulty
- and finds to his horror that he has almost forgotten how to
- walk."
- </p>
- <p> The overall Soviet economy remains a near shambles. The
- budget deficit--caused in part by transfusions to anemic
- factories and by subsidies for food and housing--is about 11%
- of the GNP, by some estimates. The ruble, arbitrarily said to
- be worth $1.60 but not freely convertible into dollars or other
- Western currencies, brings as little as 10 cents on the black
- market. But price controls have repressed the latent inflation,
- and people have more paper money--about 300 billion rubles in
- savings--than there are goods available for purchase.
- </p>
- <p> Translated to a personal level, this means that day-to-day
- life in the Soviet Union is as difficult as ever. Not only are
- big consumer items like refrigerators and washing machines in
- short supply--the average wait to buy the cheapest Soviet car
- is seven years--but staples of everyday life are also scarce.
- Long lines snake into the street for such ordinary items as
- sausage, rice, coffee and candy.
- </p>
- <p> Gorbachev's reforms are part of the problem. He is trying
- to force factories to become financially profitable, so they
- are gussying up products in order to price them higher than the
- everyday models that are price-fixed by the bureaucracy. Moscow
- consumers were deprived for months this winter of regular soap
- (32 cents a bar) because enterprises wanted to produce only a
- luxury soap that they could price at $1.60 a bar.
- </p>
- <p> This does not make perestroika popular. A middle-aged book
- translator in Moscow says that votes for Yeltsin were votes
- against the establishment and Gorbachev. But doesn't Gorbachev
- represent change? "Who gives a damn about change when you can't
- buy cheese and aspirin anymore? They've had their circus. Now
- we want bread." Izvestia reports that when miners in southern
- Russia lined up for hours to wait for their pay packets, they
- began to jeer, "And this is perestroika?"
- </p>
- <p> But to see only empty shelves is to miss the remarkable
- nature of the Soviet reforms. Gorbachev believes that the three
- prongs of his program are inextricably linked. Demokratizatsiya
- goes hand in glove with perestroika, he argues, because
- individual initiative is impossible in a society where
- decision-making is alienated from the people. And for either
- prong to work, there must be open discussion of ideas and
- criticism of the system's flaws. "It is only by combining
- economic reform with political changes, demokratizatsiya and
- glasnost that we can fulfill the tasks we have set for
- ourselves," Gorbachev told a party plenum in October.
- </p>
- <p> On this linkage, Marx would be pleased with Gorbachev: the
- dialectical process requires understanding the connections
- between different social and economic forces. In theory, the
- urge to proceed on all fronts seems logical.
- </p>
- <p> Does it make sense in practice? American politicians have
- found it more effective to ignore connections and plunge forward
- on just one or two initiatives at a time. That is the approach
- Yeltsin advocates. "By heading off in every direction at once,
- as we have been doing," he said in his interview with TIME in
- February, "we have hardly made any progress at all as far as the
- standard of living is concerned."
- </p>
- <p> But Gorbachev's approach is probably the only way to
- rebuild a system so deeply corroded. The failed reforms of 1965,
- which attempted to introduce price and profit incentives, showed
- that tinkering with parts of the economy without a
- comprehensive overhaul of attitudes was doomed. Linkage is
- necessary because the economic and social problems all stem from
- the same root: too much centralization. A system based on
- bureaucratic commands has failed. Decentralization is necessary.
- But this cannot occur unless people are allowed the freedom to
- think for themselves.
- </p>
- <p> One of Gorbachev's goals in the election was to get people
- engaged in his reforms. He did, with a vengeance. Despite 71
- years without practice, Soviets plunged into the fray of open
- democracy. "We intellectuals always saw ourselves as the symbol
- of democracy but thought the people weren't ready for it," says
- Andrei Voznesensky, a noted Soviet poet. "The joyful thing about
- all this is that in many ways we have been proved wrong."
- </p>
- <p> The significance of the new Congress of People's Deputies
- is not yet certain. The 1,500 candidates who were up for
- election on March 26 will be joined by 750 selected by public
- organizations ranging from the Communist Party to the Society
- of Stamp Collectors. They will select 544 of their number for
- a new Supreme Soviet. This new legislature, of which Gorbachev
- is expected to be president, will jostle for authority with the
- Communist Party's hierarchy, of which Gorbachev is General
- Secretary. He may thus be able (if his footwork remains agile)
- to use the new Supreme Soviet to outmaneuver the conservatives
- in the Communist Party's apparatus and to use the party's
- Politburo to keep a lid on the insurgents in the Supreme Soviet.
- </p>
- <p> Many elderly voters never mastered the principle that they
- were supposed to walk into a booth, pull the curtain behind them
- and secretly cross out the names of those they opposed. Instead,
- they picked up their ballots and walked straight to the box, as
- was the practice in past elections. Another change was that the
- party did not try to drum up turnout. "What kind of election is
- this?" a baffled older woman complained at a Moscow poll. "Where
- is the music, and what happened to the buffet?"
- </p>
- <p> Yeltsin, 58, ran as Moscow's Huey Long, stoking populist
- passions with his calls for an end to the party elite's special
- privileges and his frontal attacks on Yegor Ligachev. "You're
- wrong, Boris!" Ligachev had shouted during the emotional Party
- Conference last year at which Yeltsin sought rehabilitation
- after being kicked off the Politburo. YEGOR, YOU'RE WRONG! read
- the buttons sported by Yeltsin's supporters as they marched
- through Moscow shouting "Down with party bureaucrats!" during
- the days leading up to the election. Yeltsin ended up with an
- astounding 89% of the vote in the at-large Moscow district.
- </p>
- <p> One criticism of the election was that in 384 of the 1,500
- districts, party hacks ran unopposed. Those who ran alone,
- however, still had to collect 50% of the vote. The most
- prominent victim: Yuri Solovyov, the Communist Party boss of the
- Leningrad region and a nonvoting member of the Politburo. Though
- Solovyov ran unopposed, almost two-thirds of the voters crossed
- out his name, and he lost. The mayor of Kiev also ran unopposed
- and lost. So did that city's Communist Party boss.
- </p>
- <p> Indeed, any notion that the election was totally controlled
- by the Communist bureaucracy was dispelled by the startling list
- of losers: the mayor of Moscow, the president and prime minister
- in Lithuania, the party boss in Minsk, the first deputy premier
- of Belorussia and the admiral of the Pacific fleet of the Soviet
- navy. Across the nation, almost a third of the party's 129
- regional leaders lost. Estonians even had the courage to vote
- down the republic's KGB chief. The city party leader in
- Leningrad, running against an unknown 28-year-old shipyard
- engineer, received only 15% of the vote. In fact, the five top
- Communists in the Leningrad power structure tumbled to defeat.
- Valeri Terekhov, a member of Leningrad's Democratic Union, an
- opposition group, noted, "Gorbachev opened a volcano, and I
- don't think he realized the lava was so deep."
- </p>
- <p> Another cause of skepticism about the elections was the
- bloc of 750 seats reserved for official and public
- organizations. But even there, insurgency reigned. Leaders of
- the Soviet Academy of Sciences produced a limp slate of 23
- nominees for their 20 reserved seats, pointedly excluding
- physicist Andrei Sakharov, the Nobel laureate and human-rights
- activist. But the membership voted down 15 of them, which means
- that the academy's leaders must come up with new candidates,
- presumably including Sakharov this time. The Soviet Peace
- Committee, a goodwill and propaganda organization, was allotted
- five seats. Among those elected by the group was Patriarch
- Pimen, head of the Russian Orthodox Church.
- </p>
- <p> Between gasps, however, some caution is in order. The
- Soviet Union still has a one-party system. After broaching the
- subject of whether other parties should be permitted, Yeltsin
- was subjected to an official inquiry by the Central Committee,
- which is still under way. Gorbachev, who says that pluralism can
- be accommodated within the Communist Party, calls the idea of
- having other parties "all rubbish."
- </p>
- <p> Yeltsin will quit his job in Moscow's construction ministry
- and work to organize a bloc of like-minded members of the
- Congress of People's Deputies. "They will create pressure and
- strengthen their voice so it will be heard," he said after his
- victory. They will also, he hopes, elect him to the Supreme
- Soviet.
- </p>
- <p> In Russian the word for voting, golosovat, derives from the
- Russian word golos, or voice. That also happens to be the root
- of the word glasnost. Likewise, the election was an extension
- of the openness and public airing spawned by Gorbachev's
- glasnost crusade. Of the reform trinity, glasnost has wrought
- the most tangible changes, especially for the Soviet
- intellectual community, Gorbachev's most solid base of support.
- Nowadays the only heresy is orthodoxy. Says economist Shmelev:
- "Four years ago, people felt themselves living behind barbed
- wire. Now we have a degree of freedom for intellectuals and for
- ordinary people that would have been unimaginable before."
- </p>
- <p> But glasnost has sparked serious problems for Gorbachev,
- none more threatening than the release of long-festering
- resentments felt by various national and ethnic groups. The
- world's last polyglot empire now faces renewed demands from the
- Crimean Tatars about grievances that go back 45 years,
- nationalist demonstrations in Moldavia against Russification,
- secessionism along the Baltic coast and sectarian violence
- between Armenians and Azerbaijanis.
- </p>
- <p> The explosion of ethnic violence in Azerbaijan a year ago
- caught Gorbachev without a workable nationalities policy. The
- Armenians are enraged by what they claim are flagrant cases of
- ethnic abuse against their compatriots living in Azerbaijan.
- Gorbachev's prestige plummeted in Armenia when he gave a
- finger-wagging lecture to Armenian intellectuals who had come
- to present their case in Moscow last summer and when he ended
- his snap tour of the Armenian earthquake zone last December with
- another outburst against nationalists.
- </p>
- <p> The nationalities crisis is also acute in Estonia, Latvia
- and Lithuania, the relatively prosperous Baltic States that
- Stalin seized in 1940. Gorbachev initially regarded the
- nationalist sentiments in the region as a force that he could
- harness on behalf of perestroika. But he underestimated the
- resentment. In Estonia last November, the local legislature
- declared the republic "sovereign," a pronouncement Moscow
- refused to accept. Residents in Estonia are so fed up with
- Russians flooding in to clean out their better-stocked stores
- that they now require customers to produce a passport; only
- Estonians are allowed to buy appliances, clothing or footwear.
- The Baltics produced some painful surprises for the party as
- nationalist candidates notched victories over pro-Moscow rivals.
- </p>
- <p> Another potential problem is the festering unrest in the
- fertile heart of the Soviet Union, the Ukraine. Gorbachev
- visited the region in February and lashed out against the
- disastrous consequences of further nationalist stirrings there,
- displaying iron teeth rather than the usual smile.
- </p>
- <p> Of all Gorbachev's challenges, his most critical is getting
- perestroika to produce some tangible economic improvements. At
- the core of this effort is the Law on State Enterprise, passed
- almost two years ago, which is designed to lift the yoke of
- central planning off the back of industry. In theory, factories
- will no longer have to fulfill Moscow-dictated quotas by
- churning out products with little regard for cost, efficiency
- or quality. Instead, factories are supposed to become
- "self-financing." They will contract with suppliers for
- materials, be responsible for selling what they produce and be
- allowed to share in the profit if revenue exceeds costs.
- </p>
- <p> In reality, however, the quotas have been supplanted by
- "state orders" placed by Moscow's ministries for hefty portions
- of the output of most factories. The nation's entrenched
- bureaucrats see change as threatening, and their first priority
- is to preserve their jobs by clinging to their authority to
- meddle. That suits most managers just fine, because it means
- they neither have to hustle sales nor worry about scaring up the
- necessary raw materials. "A form of perverse social contract
- exists between the bureaucracy and those people who do not want
- to work very hard," says Shmelev.
- </p>
- <p> An equally important pillar of perestroika is the
- encouragement of private agriculture. Gorbachev has long
- promoted "contract" farming, in which small groups or families
- enter into an agreement to handle a certain portion of a
- collective farm's crops, land or livestock. The latest
- innovation, passed by the Central Committee last month, goes
- much further: it allows families to take leases of 50 years or
- more on pieces of land, keep the profit on what they raise and
- even pass the leasing rights on to their children.
- Administration of this program, though, will be under the
- control of the collective farms.
- </p>
- <p> This reintroduction of what Gorbachev delicately referred
- to as "individual property" could cause the most sweeping
- overhaul in Soviet agriculture since Stalin began to
- collectivize the farms in 1929, a process that resulted in more
- than 10 million deaths and wiped out the kulaks, or landed
- farmers, as a class. Since then the land has been unable to feed
- its people; the U.S.S.R. spends $105 billion, roughly 15% of its
- budget, subsidizing food, and it imported 36 million tons of
- grain last year. One Soviet collective farmer feeds only seven
- to nine people, in contrast to a Dutch farmer, who can feed at
- least 112.
- </p>
- <p> To breed a new class of entrepreneurs, Gorbachev has
- allowed individuals to start cooperatives and share the profits.
- At first the program was limited mainly to high-visibility
- services such as taxis and cafes. Now more than 2 million people
- are employed in co-ops and private businesses. Privately
- operated pay toilets are set up all over Moscow. But most co-ops
- are still harassed by reform-resistant bureaucrats and have
- trouble securing permits and supplies.
- </p>
- <p> Reaching beyond the country's borders, Gorbachev has
- attempted to start joint ventures with foreign investors. The
- Soviets have proved flexible: the original plan, which insisted
- on majority Soviet ownership, has been revised to accommodate
- the demands of Western companies. Last Thursday at a Kremlin
- ceremony, executives of a consortium of six U.S. firms--including
- Chevron, Eastman Kodak and Johnson & Johnson--signed
- an agreement for as many as 25 joint ventures involving about
- $10 billion over the next 20 years. Although the agreement
- specified ways that profits could be taken out of the Soviet
- Union in hard currency and not just held in worthless rubles,
- joint ventures still face enormous difficulties. Ford Motor Co.
- pulled out of the consortium because, a spokesman said, it was
- unable to persuade "the Soviets to adopt new and innovative
- financial arrangements."
- </p>
- <p> Gorbachev's economic reforms, while radical, are
- nonetheless carefully circumscribed. He is not marching headlong
- to capitalism but is attempting to reinvent Marxism by creating
- socialist markets, socialist competition and cooperative
- ventures. Private ownership of the means of production (land,
- factories) is still prohibited. Individuals cannot hire workers
- with a view to profiting from their labor but rather must form
- cooperative arrangements. There is a noncompetitive banking
- system, and no stock market for financing private ventures. Most
- important of all, there is no rational price system: thousands
- of prices are still set by state fiat rather than supply and
- demand, which means that supply never seems to equal demand.
- </p>
- <p> Despite what the election indicated, there is significant
- resistance to Gorbachev's reforms. While managers and workers
- realize that the present system has its flaws, they are not
- eager to take a leap into the unknown. Many are satisfied with
- a social contract in which, as Soviets cynically joke, "they
- pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work." The probability,
- nevertheless, is that Gorbachev will become more, not less,
- impatient. "Shortages exist because we are moving too slowly,
- halting and stepping off the road too often," says Abel
- Aganbegyan, an economist who helped shape Gorbachev's ideas.
- </p>
- <p> The next stage of perestroika will probably be even harder
- than the latest. For market incentives to work, prices will have
- to be decontrolled--a frightening prospect given the pent-up
- inflationary pressures. Rents and the prices of meat, bread and
- milk have been kept at the same level for decades; if
- decontrolled, they would be likely to rocket. Gorbachev
- understands the challenge. "Socialist markets cannot be formed
- without price reform," he told a party meeting in February. But
- having reached that daunting precipice, he blinked. Rents and
- basic food prices, he promised, will not be raised for at least
- two years. Until there are price reform and quality products to
- market, the ruble cannot become a convertible currency, which
- is necessary if Gorbachev is to attract more foreign investment
- and bring his country into international financial
- organizations.
- </p>
- <p> To buy time for his reforms, Gorbachev has forced a
- significant shift of resources away from the military. He has
- signed a decree cutting Soviet armed forces by 500,000 men
- within the next two years, helping save 14% of the total
- military budget and living up to the promise he made in his U.N.
- speech last December. These cuts have been accompanied by
- significant changes in doctrine. Conventional forces are being
- reconfigured to become more defensive in deployment. In
- addition, the Soviets now speak of maintaining a "reasonable
- sufficiency" in their nuclear and conventional forces rather
- than attempting to match or surpass the might of the West in
- every category. As a Soviet arms-control official asked
- recently, "What do we need a huge tank park in Eastern Europe
- for?"
- </p>
- <p> The swords-into-plowshares effort has produced some quirky
- situations. For example, the Ministry for Medium-Machine
- Building, which is responsible for building nuclear weapons, has
- been given the job of modernizing the dairy industry. Prime
- Minister Nikolai Ryzhkov disclosed last month that the Moscow
- Aviation Factory will soon produce pasta.
- </p>
- <p> Gorbachev also continues to advocate "new thinking" in
- foreign policy, which has been reflected in tangible reductions
- of Soviet commitments abroad. Foreign Minister Eduard
- Shevardnadze is even plunging into the thicket of creating a
- Soviet version of the War Powers Act: he has announced that the
- new Supreme Soviet should have the right to debate any foreign
- political or military commitments.
- </p>
- <p> The commanding presence that Gorbachev has been able to
- exert on the world stage has helped shore up his power at home.
- This week he is again on the road. In his visit with Cuba's
- Fidel Castro, who is no fan of perestroika or glasnost, the
- Soviet leader will have a chance to show whether his rhetoric
- about new thinking translates into taking concrete steps toward
- easing tensions in Central America. Afterward, he plans to go
- to London to see if Margaret Thatcher still believes, as she
- once said of Gorbachev, that "we can do business together."
- </p>
- <p> When Gorbachev proposed his plans for perestroika, the
- first question was, Is he serious? He was. Then the question
- was, Can he succeed? That one is still open. Nowadays, as
- popular impatience grows, another question comes up with
- increasing frequency, Are his reforms permanent, or could they
- be reversed if he was shunted aside?
- </p>
- <p> When a group of intellectuals and artists were sitting
- around Moscow debating this question, one of them asked what it
- would take for the hard-liners to reverse glasnost. "All they'd
- have to do is fire about six editors," someone replied. "I think
- one would do it," said another. But even though such a clampdown
- could occur, it could not erase the ideas or the taste for open
- discussion that has been liberated. Says Sergei Zalygin, editor
- of the crusading literary monthly Novy Mir: "How it will end we
- do not know, but there is no turning back now."
- </p>
- <p> Demokratizatsiya might be easier to dampen. Conservatives
- simply could ensure that the popularly elected Supreme Soviet
- becomes mainly a ceremonial body, with real authority remaining
- with the Politburo. Even so, the elections of March 1989 are a
- watershed. Never again will the power of the party seem quite
- so absolute and unassailable. Never again will it be quite so
- easy to herd Soviet citizens to the polls to cast ballots with
- only one name.
- </p>
- <p> As for perestroika, Gorbachev has made into a mantra the
- phrase "There is no alternative." Even Ligachev and the
- conservatives, wary as they are about the mayhem being done to
- Marxism, agree that something must be done. As Gorbachev well
- knows, one of the safeguards of perestroika is its links to
- glasnost: now that the economy's inherent flaws have been aired,
- it is impossible to retreat and pretend once again not to see
- them. "The notion that Ligachev or anyone else can bring
- perestroika to a halt now simply does not square with reality,"
- says Soviet economist Gavril Popov. "Empty store shelves and
- housing problems have made the process difficult, but something
- absolutely vital has taken place in Russian terms: a change in
- our way of thinking."
- </p>
- <p> This does not mean that Gorbachev will prevail or even
- endure. Perestroika has committed one of the most dangerous sins
- in politics: it has raised expectations more than living
- standards. Although the reforms Gorbachev has wrought can never
- be completely reversed, they could be suppressed by a retrograde
- regime. The result would be a surly Soviet Union that could
- threaten the world with its bulk and brawn while it seethed
- about the sclerotic state of its Third World economy and its
- inability to escape the tentacles of an ideology that does not
- satisfy the basic needs of 285 million people.
- </p>
- <p> The alternative is not that perestroika might suddenly be
- pronounced a success--even the irrepressible Boris Yeltsin
- should avoid holding his breath--but that the reforms will
- continue. For both the Soviets and those destined to coexist
- with them, that is the important thing. Each new manifestation
- of democracy, each new opportunity for individual enterprise,
- each new opening for free thought and expression helps ease the
- repressive relationship between the Soviet state and its
- population. That, in turn, should make the new U.S.S.R. a far
- less threatening world citizen. Last week's election was another
- act in a lengthy drama that has already, in only four fitful
- years, indelibly transformed the face of the Soviet Union--and
- its soul.
- </p>
-
- </body>
- </article>
- </text>
-
-